CNB OCCASIONAL PULICATIONS - WORKING PAPERS

 

   

Maroje Lang • Davor Kunovac
Silvio Basač • Željka Štaudinger

Modelling of Currency outside Banks in Croatia

 

W - 17
February 2008
 

This paper describes two econometric models for the short-term projections of currency outside banks in Croatia. The first model is a simple regression model that captures weekly, monthly and annual periodical patterns, given a daily series of currency outside banks. The second model, together with deterministic seasonality assumes the ARIMA structure of the residuals. Both models outperform the existing forecasts done in the CNB.

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