The benefits of the euro are the most visible in times of crisis

Published: 18/12/2023
The benefits of the euro are the most visible in times of crisis
The panel discussion was attended by Boris Vujčić, Governor of the CNB, Boris Lalovac, Member of the Croatian Parliament and Vice-Chair of the Finance and State Budget Committee, Sunčana Glavak, Member of the European Parliament, Ana Zorić, Director of the Economics and Financial System Directorate at the Ministry of Finance and Marijana Ivanov, Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Zagreb, while the discussion was moderated by Marko Biočina.

"Today we know that what we predicted would happen with the introduction of the euro has happened. It was no different from other countries when they introduced the euro, which was our guiding principle when we made cost-benefit analyses and projections of what would happen after joining the euro area, except that it happened in Croatia a little more intensively than in most other countries. Entry into the euro area primarily contributed to the elimination of exchange rate risk, which led to a decrease in the country's risk premium, which in turn led to interest rates being significantly lower than they would have been without the introduction of the euro," said Governor Vujčić in the panel discussion "Croatia in the Eurozone: Year of Challenges and Opportunities," which was held as part of the conference "Decade of Deserved Opportunities and Challenges to Come", organized by the Office of the European Parliament in Croatia.

The CNB Governor pointed out that it was good we could compare what happened in countries that had not adopted the euro, such as Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, in relation to Croatia. "The borrowing costs of the government, firms and households would now be at much higher levels if we had not adopted the euro, and the inflation rate would have been much higher. Croatia has a lower inflation rate than these countries, which shows how good the decision to adopt the euro was. As I have pointed out before, the benefits of the euro are the most visible precisely in moments of crisis," said Vujčić.

Responding to a question about the public's perception of price growth during the introduction of the euro and the impact of inflation and the euro as the new currency, he stated that the CNB, together with the European Central Bank, assessed the effect of the introduction of the euro as amounting to 0.4 percentage points. "In October, an even more precise analysis was made by Eurostat, which showed that the impact of euro adoption was even lower, between 0.04 and 0.18 percentage points, which is fully in line with what was happening in other countries when they adopted the euro – and they had the same one-off effect," said the Governor.

The public debt-to-GDP ratio is rapidly falling, and we are one of the best countries in the European Union in this regard, the Governor said, confirming that Croatia is on the right track. "We need to continue along this path. Croatia's public debt will fall below 60% and in a situation where we have significant economic growth as now, which is above the growth in the euro area and is a consequence of the momentum that usually occurs after joining the euro area and Schengen, we should continue the trajectory of public debt reduction because when it falls below 60% we will open fiscal space. There will be worse times again, and when they come, it is extremely important what level of public debt-to-GDP ratio you start from, i.e. how much fiscal space you have. The higher the public debt, the smaller the fiscal space and the less countercyclical it can act. Good times should always be used to reduce the public debt ratio. The euro will not solve all our problems, and we still need to work on structural reforms because they increase potential GDP growth in the long run," concluded Governor Vujčić.