Confidence_indices

Confidence indices

Published: 20/9/2017

The table shows selected consumer survey indicators (consumer confidence index, consumer expectations index and consumer sentiment index); from April 1999 until the second quarter of 2005, based on quarterly survey data, and subsequently, beginning with May 2005, based on monthly survey results.

Metodologija - en - odabrane nefinancijske statistike - indeksi pouzdanja

Methodology

Published: 19/1/2016 Modified: 16/12/2016

TABLE J5 Consumer confidence index, consumer expectations index and consumer sentiment index

The Consumer Confidence Survey has been carried out regularly since April 1999 in accordance with the methodology of the European Commission, the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. Until April 2005, the survey was conducted once a quarter (in January, April, July and October). As of May 2005, the survey is carried out in monthly frequency in cooperation with the European Commission, using its technical and financial assistance.
The questionnaire contains 23 questions, examining consumer perception of the changes as regards everyday economic issues. The value of the response index is determined in line with the set methodology, based on the responses to the questions from the Consumer Confidence Survey. The movements of three composite indices, consumer confidence index (CCI), consumer sentiment index (CSI) and consumer expectations index (CEI), are calculated and monitored based on the value of the response indices. Each of the said composite indices is calculated as the arithmetic average of the response indices (I), i.e. as the average of previously quantified responses to individual questions from the survey:

where: r is the value of the response, w is the share of respondents opting for a particular response (weight), i question from the questionnaire, z is the offered/chosen response, k is the number of offered responses to a particular question.
The value of the said indices ranges –100< Ii <100. Higher index values than those recorded over the previous period point to an increase in expectations (optimism) as regards the specific segment covered by the particular question.

The table shows the values of chosen response indices for the following questions:

  • I1: How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?
  • I2: How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?
  • I3: How do you think the general economic situation in Croatia has changed over the past 12 months?
  • I4: How do you expect the general economic situation in Croatia to develop over the next 12 months?
  • I7: How do you expect the number of people unemployed in Croatia to change over the next 12 months?
  • I8: In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right moment for people to make major purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.?
  • I11: Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you will save any money?

The components of composite indices are as follows:

CCI: I2, I4, I7×(–1), I11
CEI: I2, I4
CSI: I1, I3, I8.