The Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance in Croatia

Published: 11/11/2003
Publication Working Papers
Issue W - 11
Author Tihomir Stučka
Date October 2003
JEL F30, F32, F14
ISSN 1334-0131

Keywords

J-curve, trade balance, transitional economies

Summary

I use a reduced form model approach to estimate the merchandise trade balance response to permanent domestic currency depreciation. For this purpose I estimate the long run and short run effect, using three modeling methods along with two real effective exchange rate measures. On average, a 1% permanent depreciation improves the new trade balance equilibrium between 0.94% and 1.3%. This new equilibrium is established after approximately 2.5 years. I also find support for the J-curve effect. Overall, I doubt that permanent depreciation/devaluation is desirable to improve the trade balance, taking into account potential adverse effects on the rest of the economy.