The lack of simple policy answers is
attributed to, inter alia, two factors.5 First...however, it is clear
that this general policy implication does not translate into...
Second, we construct a simple indicator of “optimism about the future” and examine...economic conditions in the
future compared to the Consensus Forecast, which is the...
We employ simple aggregation strategy: systemic indicator is de�ned as weighted
average...dynamics is well approximated (in MSE sense,
see R2 statistics in Appendix A.4) by...
profits abroad.
2 Country-level estimates
We start our analysis by showing simple...that these countries have.
5
In Table 1, we quantify these results using a...
