Second, we construct a simple indicator of “optimism about the future” and examine...economic conditions in the
future compared to the Consensus Forecast, which is the...
We employ simple aggregation strategy: systemic indicator is de�ned as weighted
average...dynamics is well approximated (in MSE sense,
see R2 statistics in Appendix A.4) by...
The reason is very simple and is the fact that, contrary to the threat to existing...requires substantial investments and involves a lengthy authorisation
process,...
The lack of simple policy answers is
attributed to, inter alia, two factors.5 First...however, it is clear
that this general policy implication does not translate into...
profits abroad.
2 Country-level estimates
We start our analysis by showing simple...that these countries have.
5
In Table 1, we quantify these results using a...
